CFP Outlook heading into conference championship games

 

#1 Georgia (12-0) vs. #14 LSU (9-3)

The Bulldogs come in the SEC championship game favored by a commanding 17.5 points. Georgia had seemingly clinched their spot into the playoff with a 99% chance to get in, as they look to steamroll a struggling LSU team that is coming off an upset loss last week in College Station.

 

#2 Michigan (12-0) vs. Purdue (8-4)

The Wolverines will come into the Big 10 championship game favored by a massive 16.5 points. Michigan is also another lock into the playoff with a 99% chance to get in, after last week’s big win on the road against then-ranked #2 Ohio State.

 

#3 TCU (12-0) vs. #10 Kansas State (9-3)

The Horned Frogs enter the Big 12 championship game only favored by a narrow 2.5 points. They have their sights set on the playoff with a 90% chance to get in, as they will look to clinch with a win against an underrated Wildcat team. TCU has proven to be a playoff contender by beating 5 ranked opponents and have also won 5 games by one possession.

 

#4 USC (11-1) vs. #11 Utah (9-3)

The Trojans march into the Pac-12 championship game as 3 point favorites. This will be a rematch from earlier in the season, when the Utes handed USC their only loss of the season by a score of 43-42. The scenarios are clear-cut with a win needed by the Trojans to get into the playoff and a loss would ultimately eliminate them. USC has a 20% chance to get in, according to ESPN.

 

#5 Ohio State (11-1) 

The Buckeyes will sit back and watch the championship games this year after last week’s blowout loss against Michigan kept them out of the Big 10 championship. Ohio State is on the outside looking in, needing a loss from USC and possibly TCU to sneak back into the Top 4.

 

#6 Alabama (10-2)

The Crimson Tide find themselves in an unusual situation as they have very slim to none chances of getting back into the Top 4. Losses by TCU and USC would not be enough for a 2-loss Alabama team because Ohio State is ahead with only 1 loss and a TCU loss would still only manage an 11-1 record for the Horned Frogs.